Latest Update:- 10:30PM IST, Sunday , Dec 10
Our BTCUSD chart has been very accurate since yesterday and the price trend moved almost exactly on the lines that we drew. It was indeed an ABCDE correction as we predicted (see updates below).
Is the correction over? Time to party?
I added many updates below and I hope it has helped you to take profits or buy at low for a quick trade. I've placed the latest updated Elliott wave chart and other chart types with multiple outlooks behind the paywall.
I've given out a lot of information in this article for free and that should be good enough. Now if you benefited by making money or reducing losses, please consider using crypto to make payments instead of just speculating. If you feel it is has not provided any value or learning, let me know via twitter and I will be happy to refund.
JUMP TO PAYWALL
(Please consider this as an opinion while thinking out loud to myself and ignore the attempt at humour if it pokes at your loyalty. Thanks for reading. Core fanatics and early Bitcoin investors, please skip as you are sitting on a fortune anyway)
I don't know if this post is too late as the correction for BTC has already started in the morning. so quick advice - GET OUT NOW!
Where is the exit route?
Before you panic and run for the exits, know that Tether is dropping from Bitfinex's rear end (PG rating indeed) like there is no tomorrow (so avoid) and ETH is being eaten alive by digital kittens. So bitcoin cash/LTC appear to be good choices if not good old FIAT.
Meanwhile, bitcoin cash (see my analysis here) is all set to catch the ball when BTC is taking a break from dashing into a marathon. That's right, bitcoin was not supposed to do a 100 meter dash and it ran anyway as people went crazy after it crossed $10,000. I hope everyone made a lot of money.
To Sell or NOT to sell!
But this is a time to take profits - like 50% of your coins or less or more. Why not 100%? Because when BTC falls you may not know the bottom, so you have a whole bunch of dollars waiting to buy at $11000 price and BTC falls to $11700 and shoots up to catch the stars leaving you trying to catch its tail. In case, this scenario happens, you have 50% (or more or less) in the market that will go up.
You don't take profits
That's fine too. You are a HODLer and proud to be one. But know that if Bitcoin crashes to 7000 or 8000 or 9000, you may not have enough money to take advantage of a "cheap" bitcoin price.
My advice - Hedge with Bitcoin Cash
I admit that my portfolio is dominated by Bitcoin Cash, so I'm biased. But this is my story - On Nov12, BCH reached heights that no other crypto clone reached and I booked my profits because I started my BCH journey (read it here) at $330. While BCH reached $2800 and I sold off 50%, BTC crashed at the same time to $5700 and I bought some BTC. My mistake was selling it ALL at $6700 because the end appeared to be near.
I do regret not holding to a little chunk of BTC at that time. You see in this tug of war, hedging between the siblings appears to be prudent. Of course, I leave you to pick your favorite fighter and bet on it more, but, remember David did win the battle with a simple "Big Block" of a stone hitting at an "unconfirmed" place on the "king" Goliath, who ironically had a "small head"
Hint :- #1 price goes up other(#3) comes down and vice versa or NOT
I will leave you to choose any of these strategies or plain ignore me. My attempt is to give a perspective to all the new investors who jumped on to the Bitcoin train after it crossed the "10k" station.
Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before investing in cryptos. Trading is much more complicated than investing and my observations are more tailored for the latter with a mid to long term view. In the market you are right until you are wrong. Have a good strategy in place and protect your CAPITAL always.
Ok talk aside what is the chart saying
This is so beautiful! Bitcoin soaring into the heights and shutting the mouths of the fat bankers. But what goes up has to come down. Otherwise, how do us poor "late to the party" folks get our foot into the internet "gold" rush?
So after a very brief break (freaking 4 days) correction from $7700 to $5700 on Nov 8-12, Bitcoin started its bull run and went up by almost 200% to $16500+ in less than a month. Last time Bitcoin went up by 200% was in March when $1000 was breached.
People wake up to big round numbers like $1000 and of course $10,000. So no wonder it went up by almost 200% again. However in the bull runs between that time period started at
Middle of June = 157% (49 Days)
Middle of September = 133% (47 days)
Now what happens after a major runup? A major correction - In the above chart after a major pull run to $2700, there was a correction of 35% for 35 days. Other bull runs had similar corrections but with reducing intervals between the next bull run.
So I do expect a major correction of at least 30-35% or $11500 to $10700. This is the minimum I would expect after such a huge rally. Note that the last correction on Nov 12 was just 4 days, so BTC must be really tired now. Don't you think so?
40% correction is $9800
50% correction is $8200
So don't ignore these possibilities. A very optimistic correction could be 20% which takes you to $13,100. But I like a big correction it is healthy (screw you Bitfinex)
Falling Knives, don't cut yourself too much
I really hate getting caught up in false rallies. Don't make the mistake I did, I learnt the hard way that when I assumed the big immediate drop was the end of correction after Nov12 BCH rally and bought back some of my coins that I sold at $1500.
In such kind of correction, you keep having lower highs and lower lows until you run out of money assuming you caught the bottom. These are false rallies and I believe this downward movement will drop more over the next few days or weeks. Fortunately, my average BCH coin price was $480 and I was never in the red, I know of guys who bought back at $1600 and are stuck with their BCH coins waiting forever to reach the 2k mark (They have a chance now, read my analysis on Bitcoin Cash price action)
But there is no better explanation of this situation of "falling knives" than the article written by our resident TA expert RiversAndMountains. His article is worth the weight in gold and it saved my friend's coins after he bought them at $1570 and sold off at $870 but after I shared a passage (see below) from that article he bought back at $970 and still in the game. All of this happened at 4am our time.
Other points to consider for the unpopular case of a major correction (copied from my previous article)
- Bitcoin has grown almost 200% in 25 days (I will share a chart in Next post) without a correction. The last time it did this was when it cut $1000 mark. What happens next? (It has begun as I write this)
- 228,000 unconfirmed transactions despite having 90% Hash power. Now if the hash power moves to a certain other "trash" coin, how do you take profits or cut your losses if you can't move your coins to an exchange?
- ETH, the next best thing is bogged down due to millions of cute kittens.
- Where is the EXIT? (Hint: #1 & #2 cryptos are clogged, #3 could be the answer)
In the interest of reducing losses for new investors, there is no content behind the paywall. But I would like to avoid the trolls by keeping high comment price and for folks who enjoyed or found this helpful to donate and share their feedback. Thank You!
Update - 10:30AM IST, Saturday, Dec 9
Well all the folks infatuated with BTC are thinking that the correction is behind us. But just in case you are wrong - are you ready with a plan?
The chart appears to be consolidating and getting ready for the jump, but this could be an ABC correction pattern as well. Be vigilant
Notice how there is a smaller ABC correction within the Wave A. How cool is that?
Update - 10:30PM IST, Saturday, Dec 9
Well, falling knives indeed. Last chart, we were at $14800+ and look where we are ($13712). I told you that it may give you false hope - Lower Highs and Lower Lows!
"Nobody ever lost money by taking profits from the markets"
BCHBTC (Hint: Hedge now!) chart also looks good and we are inching towards the upper boundary. However, we will need major volume to breakthrough. That could happen when BTC drops with exhaustion after an incredible 200% run in 25 days, while throwing the recent new investors under the bus because of a large backlog of transactions
Update - 10 AM IST, Sunday, Dec 10
It is good to be so accurate but I'm afraid very few people saw this article or took it seriously. Happens! Especially to new investors who jumped in recently.
This price movement aligns perfectly with my last 2 updates above and these are "falling knives" giving false hope to the inexperienced traders or investors who keep buying at every jump assuming it is the end of this correction. BUT
This ABCDE correction could be part of a larger ABC correction. I'm not sure now and personally would stay away until we get more confidence.
Guys, if this article helped you in any way, please consider leaving a comment. It means a lot otherwise I'm just rambling to myself ;-)
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