https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCHUSD/R6v5XOLh-Bitcoin-Cash-Surviving-Market-Corrections/
So, this is reality. Yes, crypto is a long-term big bull run that’s nowhere near global adoption levels. That is the truth. However, there’s a saying everyone has heard before
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Time frame is what matters. Over the course of 2018, I’m sure we’ll see even greater parabolic growth in crypto. The question is, if markets correct, can you survive until then?
I survived the September and October bear markets. I didn’t trade it particularly well and took some pretty big hits to my positions and wealth and even though in the end everything is fine and I have quite solid gains for the year, the losses generated then cost me gains I can’t recover during this bull run.
Here’s a reality check for you if you’re one of the “lol it’s crypto noob markets correct noob” camp.
Price just went from $4,100 --> $1,600 in 2 days 6 hours.
October’s BTC massive market correction dropped the price from $4,300 to $2,900 in about 3 days 6 hours
We just experienced a substantially more violent correction than October panic was. This is not unique to Bitcoin Cash, as all markets suffered the same fate with the exception of a few outlier shitcoins.
What it does tell you though is that the bull run is over until proven otherwise. This is a key premise that you must accept. The fastest way to lose money trading is to be trading in the wrong direction.
Here’s a very realistic scenario to consider.
I’m not a fan of elliot waves, personally. I feel like too often they’re virtually guessing and too often they’re something you end up fitting over an already finalized chart. That being said, during classic patterns like an ABC correction they can be pretty accurate.
This would be a major one, to say the least, but 2017 has made people forget that Bitcoin can and does also correct on a huge scale.
This is the weekly chart on Bitstamp. This is the longest price history of Bitcoin that is available on TradingView. They’re the only exchange that has lasted through all these years, including the Goxing.
Think it over. Zooming in, this was a similarly violent dip back during the collapse of the $280 BTC bubble. These are daily candles.
And these are the Bitcoin Cash daily candles.
Neat how it dumped to exactly Tenkan (red Ichimoku moving average). Kumo twists both red and green. That’s also very telling.
The market will absolutely be fine, in the long term. However, the long term is a painful and difficult chain of days and weeks if you get stuck at a top.
The point is that you must adapt to changing situations with incomplete information. You must control both fear and greed, and you must have a strategy and a plan.
This thread is going to be a long-term trade meaning we're going to be using 6H candles only. Updates will be slower and less frequent because of that, but the thread will go on for a longer period of time as well.
Behind the wall I've prepared a general strategy for where to sell your core position to take profits and how and why you should take profits at those levels, along with much advice about how your thinking and mindset must adjust to the situation.
The thread will have trading-style updates, but will run longer-term alongside shorter-term timeframe trades.
The downside to this post will most definitely be if price just completely recovers and rocketships. That being said, this post is also a general wisdom and principled post that should have universal value all the same.
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Comments
  spent 20.0¢
Hi Rivers, great post as usual. Can I ask you how you see the overall BTC scenario at this point, and how that may influence BCH? As in, do you think it will also have the same type of downtrend structure, and how the relationship between BCHBTC may shape itself? The BCHBTC ratio has until now stayed within a healthy 0.15 and 0.20, above what we’d been seeing of 0.7-0.10 of the previous weeks.
Thanks!
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   12mo ago
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@foorakedmak - BCHBTC ratio actually looks like it's due to break upwards. It held surprisingly consistently during the market correction. It makes me think we may actually see a situation where we go to 0.2 or 0.3 BTC.
We'll have to see what happens though.
@chevac - $3,200 is the big number that has to be overcome. If that can be achieved then we'll see something big. BTC and BCH will likely inverse, yes.
@sensei - A few people asked to put them at the top so they didn't have to scroll down. It made sense on retrospect although I can see how it's confusing.
I know when Ryan and Clement are back from holidays in the new year there's going to be a proper update function like TradingView has, which will be nice.
If there's enough feedback for this I'll re-arrange updates to the bottom order again.
@Yoonski - KRW prices were a lot more manic than ours, and same for Bitcoin Legacy. Right now that pattern looks similar to the pattern we have here.
Right now my instinct and experience is telling me we're going to continue upwards and all this was just rocket fuel.
But, it's exactly that feeling that counts as bull trap, too.
@KeyJockey - You have the right idea. Bull traps are called bull traps for a reason. That being said, after these big drops, crypto has proven surprisingly resilient so long as selling pressure doesn't continue to persist.
We'll watch carefully what happens over the next few days and adjust accordingly and stay calm.
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   12mo ago
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Hi R&M, do you have any idea on what signal price should we look for on BTCUSD chart? Or do you think BTC and BCH will go different ways? Thank you
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   12mo ago
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@riversanmountains, I was just wondering why the updates are appearing on top and not in chronological order. For me personally it made more sense to just scroll down and see new updates at the bottom, because if we miss one or two updates, then we have to search in the middle of the text and continue reading upwards, so it's not the optimal flow of information. Anyway this isn't a big deal, but just feedback of readability/usability/information flow.
Thank you as always.
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   12mo ago
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Hi! Been looking at the 6H charts as per your advice, and wanted your opinion on the Korean charts. (BTC 6 Hour chart and BCH 6 Hour chart, in KRW)
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   12mo ago
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Hey R&M... great post as always. As noted before I'm not a trader (strictly hodler) but I still buy your writing just to have some add'tl insight into what's going on in crypto day to day.
So many things have been so crazy the last few months that I think we all need as much well-informed insight from as many sources as we can find, just to stay sane LOL
That said, I'm surprised actually that this long-overdue correction of a quick and so sharp bloodbath HASN'T really "stuck" all that badly. Overall my total portfolio is already bounced-back to over half of the drop... so it's not so much more than, "oh it's just a flesh wound" now, really... no worries.
But... oddly I'm now worried because I'm NOT worried! Your post had some pessimistic sentiment in there (well reasoned and well deserved under the circumstances) but now it just feels... weird... to be going back to "moon baby!"... doesn't it?
Anyone else feeling a little weirded out by all this last couple days?
Is this kind of weirdness an indicator of "dead cat bounce" or bull trap or something and maybe we're not out of the woods on this turn of events, quite yet?
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   12mo ago
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So, It is better now to close position in order to buy it lower?
Where do you hope to see BCH/BCT pair low?
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   12mo ago
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Hi Rivers, can you please list all major BCH support lines all the way down in case BTFee drops to 1500-5500 range? Would like to have that ready in case you are not online when it happens. Sold my position on 2750-2800 range because I didn't have computer access last couple of days and didn't want to risk it. Maybe I did it to early. So now I'm looking for new entry point. Thank you for your advice
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   12mo ago
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still following.
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   12mo ago
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Hi Rivers, do you have the link to the post you mentioned of Goldbug1 on TradingView explaining the 70/140/280 EMAs?
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   12mo ago