Bitcoin Cash Part 3 - Take a leap of faith but carry your chute. Investment "Risks" ( Technical Analysis)
Man these pennants are sweet, second call since yesterday we have been on target. Hope this moons as per my below charts. Stay safe and make some Bitcoin Cash!
What a ride! I have been waiting for this bull run since 4 weeks and we are finally here. This is why a vision is important. It was also amazing that my posts and charts were able to predict this run in advance. But the price went beyond my expectations.
Now you know the power of Elliott waves, the 3rd wave is always the strongest (we may still be in it) and magically NEWS of coinbase starting BCH trading materializes. TA is one of the most important tools to have for a crypto investor.
Latest Update: Our charts have been bang on and we appear to be on the verge of a flippening. The difficulty adjustment has gone up by 20%
I don't have to say anything more than this BCHBTC chart and the possible course in front of us. (More details behind the paywall)
Update: While drafting this post in a hurry before the breakout happened, it actually broke out, but the awesome thing is that I predicted it 2 hours before in a tweet with a brand new chart type. So please follow me in twitter for quick chart updates or ideas.
Our last 2 posts with charts (and later updates) have been very accurate and we are getting to a place where vision (Part 1), strategy (Part 2) and risk management are needed. I will list out some of the major risks in crypto investment ,Bitcoin Cash investment along with risks in the current chart analysis (TA).
I will cover all these aspects in a series of articles with TA/Charts in each of them. Do check out the previous articles and share your feedback. Jump to the TA section directly if you want
- Future Outlook (Part 1)
- Strategy (Part 2)
- "Risks" (Part 3)
- Fundamentals (News)
- Daily Charts (Behind Paywall)
Why is Part 3 - in Quotes - "Risky"
I loved jumping out of that plane above, it was my first skydive and a dream come true. I also Scuba dive, Hang glide, ride Horses, jump from bridges, biked in Himalayas and more. But I do get scared with crypto investments and sometimes can't wait to take my money and jump ship.
Everyone has their own perspective to "Risks" in general. My brother may never try any of these adventures but he makes trading look like a piece of cake, this is because he understands the risks vs rewards, uses strategies, has enough experience to win over time with good calls and cuts losses while maximizing profits.
and so I learnt to identify some of these major risks and try my best to mitigate them.
"The only way to lose money in crypto is if you SELL"
I learnt this lesson the hard way in Crypto. My first purchase of Bitcoin Cash was at $330, then at $420, $480, $510, $630, $1000, $1100, $1300, $1500 etc. This is because I keep selling to make profits or when there appears to be a major correction. This is not a big problem for me because I started investing so early (and I never sell core coins). My friend started at the same time in BCH, but never sells and keeps buying at major dips.
To each his own
Everyone has their own style and strategy that is relevant to their situation in life. Part 2 lists out some of these strategies and you can decide which category you fall in. Crypto investments are very risky and you will need to use multiple ideas/models to survive & thrive.
Major risk - Losing all or most of your initial investment
"90% of new traders, lose 90% of their money in the first 90 days" - borrowed from my friend
This is the first major risk that threatens any new investor in Crypto, and unless you have a lot of experience in Trading, the volatility and wild west nature will catch you unawares. So have a good strategy in place like invest what you can afford to lose or start with a nominal amount.
New investors tend to jump into a lot of alt coins just because someone they know made 10x or more and put all their money in random alts with little research and 1 bad call, the loss becomes major and you may end up selling at a loss or holding onto the coins for a very long time.
Major risk - Selling too early or too late
I would not be here giving advice if I bought BCH at $330 and sold off at $390. Having a vision and a strategy helps a lot here. More important would be technical analysis, I particularly love the power of Elliott waves and how it gives an insight into Long term, Mid term and short term price target zones.
One of the most difficult decisions to make in crypto is when to sell while the price is just exploding upwards, you can end up waiting to sell at the top and wait too long and sell at a much lesser profit after the price has retraced. Once again having a plan in advance and TA will come to the rescue here
Major risk - NOT HODLing or Never Selling
Don't be Matt. Bitcoin Cash or any crypto may very likely go to heights that are beyond our comprehension, but I would like the fundamentals to be strong along with usage.
My friend's cousin was studying medicine in 2009 and decided to use bitcoin via steam to play games. He and a friend bought 2000 bitcoins when the value was in cents. They later forgot about it and become doctors, with the recent news that bitcoin crossed $10,000 they scrambled to check their old accounts - the cousin had used all his coins to play and his friend had 1 Bitcoin remaining in his account, which he immediately sold for $11,000.
I bought Bitcoin Cash because of its fundamentals and the scope for easy use (you guys are paying to read on yours.org), it may very likely reach prices like 3k, 4k, 5k,....10k or more. Unlike BTC I can imagine it's ATHs (All time high) because it is just following bitcoin's path but much faster.
So I always plan to HODL a few coins of the top cryptos especially if there is a product ready and used by common people. (See Part 2 post for this strategy)
Never say "Never"
I hope that fortunes made in a coin will not make me blind to reality. In crypto you will have to be ready for anything, it is still in its infant stage. You may have made fortunes in Bitcoin or other cryptos, but planning to hold them forever is probably not the best idea since the landscape is changing so much. If Roger Ver can sell his BTC and diversify or hedge or move with other cryptos, don't you think that action has merit?
Ok enough talk, let's chart to the moon for Bitcoin cash
This was my earlier chart on BCH, I tried to look for a different pattern and found the pennant forming and subsequently tweeted after seeing a minor breakout (small green candle)
Look how exactly the large green candle aligned with my previous orange breakout line that I drew in the earlier chart. Technical analysis doesn't get better than this for me. Of course, there will be times where charts will be wrong. But it is just not happening since I started posting my charts here. So please check them out.
Behind the paywall
The following will be included
- Detailed analysis, visual cues and targets with support zones for the above chart
- Macro view for mid term target above $3000 through a Elliott wave chart
- A closer sub wave Elliott wave pattern for short term
- A channel type chart
- BCHBTC chart with details
I hope you will find value or learning from these charts and above details on Risks. If not, let me know in twitter if you would like a refund.
Thanks for your kindness and time. Do comment to leave any feedback, it is a great motivation to continue writing.
Disclaimer: Please do your due diligence before investing in cryptos. Trading is much more complicated than investing and my observations are more tailored for the latter with a mid to long term view. In the market you are right until you are wrong. Have a good strategy in place and protect your CAPITAL always.
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